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At the beginning of every year, when my students sit down in front of me at Trinity College in Dublin, I can’t stress enough the importance of not only what they’ll learn in textbooks, but what they see happening in the world around them.
As the world changes, our understanding of the economy should change too.
To understand why central bankers might be misreading what is going on, it’s crucial to understand the traditional model that central bankers use to weigh up what is going on in the economy. The Phillips Curve is the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment.
This increased income allows the market to absorb the increases in prices as everyone has more money.But sometimes it doesn’t because of intellectual inertia.Regularly, economists — and in particular policymakers — display a form of “groupthink” and seem wedded to old models about how the world works that appear to be impervious to the changes that are taking place in the real world.As the global economy is growing and unemployment is falling, central bankers’ default position is that inflation must be around the corner — but what if it’s not?
What if policy makers in their ivory towers wedded to old ideas do not appreciate that millennial technological change and the likes of Whatsapp, Uber, Amazon and Netflix, is driving deflation not inflation?While higher wages give more income to workers, they constitute higher costs to employers and ultimately less profit.